Thursday, September 27, 2012

N.Y. Times 538.com "If Election Held Today Obama Would Have Biggest Gain In Alaska Now Palin Not On Ticket"


Post election update:

No state shifted more to Obama in 2012 than Alaska. It went from 59-38 McCain/Obama to 55-42 Romney/Obama with 98.6% of precincts reporting. The Governor’s presence on the ticket clearly added around 10-12 points to McCain’s margin in 2008 in the Last Frontier when considering just how strong 2008 was for Obama and the Democrat Party.

So much for "Palin was a drag on the McCain ticket and cost him the election"-not that that ridiculous bit of leftist propaganda wasn't exploded by even the most cursory glance at the facts-for instance AT THIS LINK.

Nevertheless it is useful, as we, hopefully, look to a Palin run in 2016 that further proof of Palin positive effect on the 2008 election is revealed. If it comes via a leftist at a leftist source, in this case Nate Silver of 538.com at the New York Times then so much the better.

Silver, in the manner of psephologist's who double as entertainers for a mass readership, has come up with a formula, which he describes as "now-cast estimates". This basically looks at the aggregate of polling in individual states as of today and contrasts it with the actual result candidate Obama received in 2008 and is put in table form from the biggest change in Obama's favor to the biggest change against Obama.

As the chart shows the single biggest swing, on current polling towards president Obama as of today in the 2012 election is in Alaska where,as Silver notes, Palin is from and was of course on the 2008 ticket. 

Thus without her on the Ticket Romney, is doing worse in Alaska than any other state in America. Although McCain was of course on the ticket and the presidential candidate his state of Arizona has not swung as much to Obama as Alaska has without Palin currently being on the ticket.



"In 14 of the 50 states, the “now-cast” would bet on Mr. Obama winning by a larger margin than he did in 2008. They are an eclectic mix and include the following:
· Two states, Arizona and Alaska, that were home to the Republican presidential and vice-presidential candidates in 2008."



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