Saturday, October 20, 2012

Update#2; Who's In/Who's Out For The 2016 Presidential Race

Current state of play for 2016;

Haven't denied/ruled out running/leaning to run      Media Speculation running        "Not running"
Chris Christie                                                              Andrew Cuomo                     Mitt Romney                                                                                                             
Sarah Palin                                                                  Joe Biden
Rick Perry                                                                    Paul Ryan
Jeb Bush                                                                     Hillary Clinton
Marco Rubio                                                               Bobby Jindal (AT THIS LINK) 


Last month I did a review of the state of play for the tilt at the presidency in 2016. Of course this is an exercise in possibilities at this juncture, and often an unlikely person ends up as the nominee (see Obama, Barack) when many pundits said the game was sewn up (see Clinton, Hillary). I reproduce the original post below and have these updates:

Marco Rubio; If this answer, a classic of avoidance of the central question is any indication Rubio will have no problem
running if he chooses to do so:

When asked if he has any ambitions to run for president someday, Rubio said he deliberately avoids viewing any current position as a "springboard" for some other position.
"I think it's a recipe for self-destruction," Rubio said.
But, Rubio added, if he does a good job as senator, then "six years from now I'll have a lot of opportunities to do different things."

Being an ex-Mormon, and with questions (valid or not, they stick) over his constitutional suitability as a citizen to run could be challenges for him. Also, his being apparently passed over by Romney for the VP slot, even though Rubio is a powerful force amongst Hispanics in the key battleground state of Florida, might raise serious questions as to why he was passed over. 

This none to generous media report is problematical, but if Romney loses, many of the perceived negatives set out, may turn to positives for Rubio. So to this apparent attack by Rubio on candidate Romney's tax plan.

Mitt Romney: It might be thought that if Mitt loses this time but runs very close, or even loses in the Electoral College but wins the popular vote (see Gore, Al) he might be more than justified on having another go in 2016. If that happened his path through the primary campaign might not be so easy as the previous one with the like of e.g. Christie and a Palin possibly being there as well. 

However, it appears Mitt can be added to the "who's' out" lot according to Ann Romney. Ann Romney advised (AT THIS LINK), on The View that Mitt is "absolutely done with politics if he loses the election on November 6th". A candidate making such a denial is one one thing, but when the spouse says there is no future run (see Daniels.Mitch) then that is pretty much that.

Sarah Palin: was asked, yet again, about her future political plans (AT THIS LINK) and once again did not make a categorical denial that she didn't have any, advising "I don't know politically where the future will lead me". Which of course could imply that she expects the future to lead her someone politically.

Here is a new entry in the "whose (possibly) in for 2016, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo who has been the subject of speculation lately (AT THIS LINK)   and especially "Let's start the speculation about Hillary Clinton and Andrew Cuomo" AT THIS LINK

"Come 2016, the Democratic Party will be in need of a presidential nominee.  With his record and popularity being what they are, as well as his high profile and famous last name, many have opined that Gov. Cuomo is just the guy the Democrats will need as they try to replace a term-limited President Obama with another Democrat or deny a President Romney a second term in the White House."

And Poltico reports:

Cuomo Hires High Profile Spokesperson

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has hired Allison Gollust, former head spokesperson at NBC Universal, as his new communications director, Azi Paybarah reports.

"Gollust may be a more out-front presence than her predecessor, particularly once Cuomo lifts his self-imposed virtual ban on non-New York media in the run-up to 2016. She is replacing Richard Bamberger, a personal-publicity-shy former television producer who is departing for a job in the private sector."



Subsequent to his VP debate performance against 
Paul Ryan (who of course has to be included in the mix, new to the speculation game is the doughty 
Joe Biden who earned the undying gratitude of the "progressive' leftists at Daily Kos who back him for the presidential running 2016



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President Clinton (Bill, lets not get ahead of ourselves here) ran true to form as his "Slick Willie" alter ego with his really hilarious statement that he had "no earthly idea what Hillary would do" vis a vis running in  2016. 

No final decision of course but "no earthly idea" pull the other one, it has bells on it. Secretary Clinton joins a growing group of  "non-declarers" i.e. potential 2016 candidates who have not said they will run but on the other hand have not said they won't (we'll take Bill's statement as a proxy in this case, which I think is a fair )

In Chris Christie's case he didn't even wait until the political body of Mitt Romney had cooled off before indicating that if the siren call came "it would be something he would add to the mix". 

Apart from the genuinely serious stuff like creating budgets and raising (for the most part) taxes, politicians really are transparently funny in their evasions. Not that one can blame them, their being major decisions to be made, and doors left ever so slightly (or gapingly in Christie's case, for a number of reasons) ajar.

Here is the current state of the play with the non-denying statements from the initial "candidates for 2016 with 
President Clinton's wonderfully creative statement first up.



Former President Bill Clinton is just as in the dark as the rest of the political world about whether Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016.

"I have no earthly idea what she'll decide to do," Clinton said of his wife's plans in an appearance Sunday on CBS's "Face the Nation."

Hillary Clinton has "worked hard for 20 years" during the Clintons' eight years in the White House, the same amount of time representing New York in the Senate and four as secretary of state "and she's tired," the former president said.

"She's done a fabulous job, I'm very proud of her," he said. "But she wants to take some time off, kind of regroup, write a book, I hope we'll be working together" on the Clinton Global Initiative and other projects.

"We ought to give her a chance to organize her life and decide what she wants to do. I just don't know," the former president said.

But if she does decide to run, Clinton will back her. "Whatever she does, I'm for her first, last and always," he said. "She has extraordinary ability ... she'll push a rock up the hill as long as it takes to get up the hill."

Then the never say die Rick Perry who has his sights on getting under way as early as 2015.


Perry Wants to Run Again in 2016
Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) told the CBS affiliate in Dallas that he's going to give the "appropriate consideration" to running for re-election as governor in 2014 and said he was leaning toward running for president again in 2016.

Said Perry: "2016 is way down the road, but I'll assure you one thing, if I decide to run for the presidency in 2016, I'll be way in before the summer of 2016; 2015, even."

The Bush clan, have commenced the attack against Palin already and are the media's obvious favorite, which may not be the best recommendation.

Here's Jeb Bush staking out his "centrist" position by attacking the conservatives in the GOP. If Romney loses I  would imagine that would not be the best place to be standing in when the Iowa primary commences-but who knows? 

The other, rather ungracious wouldn't you say, attack came from the Bush clan Matriarch against Sarah Palin, so it is pretty clear who they see as a possible opponent.

"Mr. Bush has always taken a path separate from those of his brother and his father, and friends said his words were those of a man free from the restraints of electoral politics. He said on CBS last week that he had no interest in being vice president to Mitt Romney — whom he has endorsed — and that while he has not ruled out a presidential run in the future, this year was “probably my time.”

And the entertaining, but surprisingly subdued at the Tampa convention, Chris Christie:

Chris Christie said Wednesday he would "certainly think about running" for president four years from now if Mitt Romney does not win in November, the Associated Press reports.
The popular New Jersey governor resisted pressure to seek the Republican presidential nomination last year, but 2016 is in his sights.
"If there's an opportunity for me to serve in another capacity and I think I have something to add to the mix, I don't think I'd back away from it," he said,

And of course the very best for last; Sarah Palin leaves the door open

In response to  Uma’s  question about folks wondering if she has her eye on 2016, Governor Palin responded:
I never know what will happen.  Never know, no.   This is America.  Anything is a possibility, and thank God, we have the freedom to choose what it is that  we will do with vocations.  and avocations.  We have the opportunities, you know,  nowhere else but in America.