Thursday, November 8, 2012

GOP Doomed Forever By Demographics Is Rubbish; 3 Key States Lost By Under 2%.Clear Path To 2016 Win (Maps)

Why there is so much doom and gloom from Republicans is understandable-losing is never easy of course. But  to pick up on gloating left's theme that it is all over for the Republicans because demographics will leave it as a minority in the wilderness is absolute rubbish.

First of all Romney's loss is on the current popular vote tally by 2.35%, McCain lost by 7.3%

If Obama holds Florida his electoral College Vote will be 329 to Romney's 206 with the GOP recovering North Carolina and Indiana and solidifying its hold on Missouri where it scraped by previously.

In 2008 it was 365 to 173 in the Electoral College.

This major gains were made in the popular vote percentage loss, states were recovered and solidified, and the loss margin in key swing states was reduced-hardly a devastating scenario for 2016. 

If Republicans wanted something to that was genuinely worth crying over with utter doom and gloom they could look back to 1964 which was a massive loss or the two Clinton elections but people picked themselves up after being written off and came back to win. Nothing is not recoverable-if the Dem's could come back from 1972 and 1984 when they were almost obliterated then 2012 is a walk in the park.

Most certainly, as Sarah Palin says, the GOP must be a "big tent" party and welcome Hispanics and all minorities but to write the GOP off because of the growing Hispanic vote is nonsense.  Certainly there may be a lag in the time between the growth of a large Hispanic middle class and the current large blue collar Hispanic population but it will come.By an outreach and by pointing to the examples of Marco Rubio, Susan Martinez, and Ted Cruz amongst others that start can and must be made.

Hopefully enough will be done by 2016 to make that outreach a significant part of a Republican renewal, but even if it is still in the nascent stage that by no means would restrict the GOP to secondary stays in the electoral College. Looking at the maps below to go from 206 to 270 the GOP would need to win

29 votes:Florida which was a virtual tie in 2012
18 votes:Ohio lost by 1.9%
13 votes:Virginia lost by 2%

Those 60 Electoral College votes plus the ones won in 2012 would take the candidate to 266

Thus any of the following states would bring the total to a minimum of the required 270:

 9 votes:Colorado lost by 4.7%
20 votes Pennsylvania lost by 5.2%
 6 votes: Iowa lost by 5.6%
 4 votes: New Hampshire lost by 5.8%

A significant point is that for all these states the Hispanic population is relatively small. Any amount gained from Hispanics by an outreach in those states might be enough to provide the winning margin but by no means are they such a factor that the GOP is assigned to oblivion in the foreseeable future.

A team of Palin and Martinez or Rubio or even Cruz would  have tremendous possibilities in gaining the votes of women and Hispanics

Current 2012 Electoral College situation with Florida in President Obama's camp.
 One winning formula for the GOP in 2016