Special guest post by M. Joseph Sheppard.
Those Republican voters in Kansas, especially the Tea Party supporters, who are considering voting for “Independent” Greg Orman for senator rather than current senator Pat Roberts might give pause when they realize Orman is potentially two senate votes for the Democratic party.
The math is simple and irrefutable. If the election result turns out to be Dem’s 50 senate seats and the GOP 49 with Orman winning as an “Independent” then, as per his advice, he will “caucus with the party that has the most seats” that being, under these circumstances, the Dem’s who will have a two vote 51/49 majority with Harry Reid triumphant
But, if the result is, as seem highly possible on current polling, Republicans 50 Democrat’s 49 Independent 1 what then?
There is absolutely no guarantee that Orman, a Democrat in previous incarnations, might not find a plum committee post or some other bauble so enticing that he would not find “the national interest via the balance of the GOP having the house and the Democratic party the senate” or some other such wiggle room specious reasoning, to caucus with the Dem’s.
For all his running as a new broom etc he is a politician, and such have been known to do anything when it suits (see Specter, Arlen for example).
Orman himself confirms this obvious concept:
Orman: I Could ‘Absolutely’ Switch Parties After Picking Senate Side
Then the result would be Democrat’s and allies 50 Republicans 50. At which point Vice-President Biden becomes the casting vote and gives Reid and co. control of the senate.That such a result would make a mockery of Kansas true political leanings, not having had a Democratic party senator for 80 years, is beyond doubt-which mockery counts for nothing with the Beltway machination machine.
Thus Orman goes from being the Republicans 51st potential vote to, in actuality via the Biden co-joined vote seeing the Dem’s go from 49 to 51 votes. The reality is that an Orman win can be worth two votes and a working majority for the Dem’s. Latest polling has Orman up by 5 points-the danger, not just for Roberts, but for the entire GOP is clear.
This possibility should be driven home to the wavering Kansas Tea Party (to whom Governor Palin surely made it clear where their support should go with her visit to Kansas to visibly and vocally stand by Roberts) and to the regular Kansas Republicans. A vote for Roberts shores up the possibility of getting rid of Reid, and of ensuring President Obama is the lamest of lame ducks.
A vote for Orman, or staying home on election day can very much mean an Obama and Reid triumph and give bad portends for 2016. It also gives the Dem’s a mechanism, via “independents” to pull of this game in other red states-what difference does it make to them if, as in Alaska and now Kansas, they don’t run a regular Democrat if they can sneak one in to caucus with them under the Indie label? Electoral-Vote.com the noted polling analysis site has a commentary up which clearly states the danger for republicans:
Vox has a story on Kansas Senate candidate Greg Orman and what he might do if he wins. The article says he is cynical because he says he might caucus with either party but his platform fits much better with the Democrats.